Brazil's two main presidential contenders — Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) — both place biofuels at the center of their plans to expand Brazil's share of the global low-carbon energy market. Their proposals cover ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel (HVO), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biogas. But the instruments they propose to stimulate production, attract investment and open markets diverge in ways that reflect deeper ideological differences.
Flávio Bolsonaro: Private Investment, Legal Certainty, No Emissions Targets
Bolsonaro's registered government program with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) prioritizes cheap energy, legal certainty for investors and the economic valorization of the forest. It does not include greenhouse-gas emissions targets. The plan proposes expanding the pre-salt gas pipeline network, modernizing refineries and allowing unconventional gas exploration (fracking) "with environmental responsibility and in compliance with the law."
For agriculture, the program calls for domestic fertilizer production from gas and the minerals potassium and phosphate to reduce import dependence. On biofuels specifically, it cites special financing lines for companies that convert waste into energy — though it does not specify volumes, interest rates or eligibility criteria. Bolsonaro also pledges to implement the Fuel of the Future Law, which creates instruments to increase the share of lower-carbon fuels in the energy matrix, and to enforce SAF blending targets starting in 2027 with permanent coordination between the Agriculture and Mines and Energy ministries.
On climate, the plan seeks to internationalize RenovaBio, Brazil's national biofuels decarbonization program, so that Brazilian renewable-fuel production can generate carbon credits for sale abroad. The document submitted to the TSE does not mention the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, nor the climate conferences; the phrase "climate change" does not appear, only "extreme climate events." Deforestation is framed as a commitment to end illegal deforestation by 2029, not as an emissions-reduction policy.
Lula: State-Led Expansion, Binding Climate Targets, Higher Blending Mandates
Lula's program defends expanding renewable energy, storage and system flexibility, opening a "new frontier" of battery investment and maintaining transmission auctions. It cites 89% renewables in the electricity matrix and R$ 595 billion (roughly USD 115 billion at recent rates, approximate conversion) in planned investments from the New Growth Acceleration Program (Novo PAC).
The plan proposes continued expansion of sugarcane and corn ethanol, biodiesel and SAF, as well as using agro-industrial byproducts for bioenergy and biogas to strengthen integration between agricultural and energy chains. A key pillar is upgrading RenovaBio with guidelines for second- and third-generation biofuels and deeper links to domestic industry. The program also envisions a stronger role for state-controlled Petrobras in the segment, integrated with its Petrobras Biocombustíveis (Pbio) subsidiary.
On blending mandates, Lula's program highlights the increase of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 32% and biodiesel in diesel from 10% to 15% as achievements of the current term, signaling continuity to give producers predictable demand. The plan also promises tax cuts on energy and fuels and a large-scale battery storage program, without detailing timelines or the impact of incentive reductions on renewables.
Climate Commitments: The Sharpest Contrast
Lula's program commits to meeting Brazil's updated NDC, which targets a 59% to 67% reduction in net greenhouse-gas emissions by 2035 relative to 2005. It reaffirms zero net deforestation by 2030 and proposes maintaining the Climate Fund (Fundo Clima), Eco Invest and the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) as financing instruments. In agriculture, it envisions integrated policies for grain and protein chains, accounting for the environmental effects of biomass expansion, and a national climate-resilience program for farming — including expanded irrigation, soil conservation, precision agriculture, no-till planting and modernized weather monitoring and alerts for producers.
Single-Source Reporting Note
This analysis is based on a single CNN Brasil report summarizing the candidates' registered government programs. The programs themselves were not independently verified against the original TSE filings.