Brazil’s 2026 presidential race is increasingly being read in Brasília as a contest with two calendars: the vote due in four months and the struggle to define who inherits the political field in 2030.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), is running as the standard-bearer of the Bolsonaro movement while former president Jair Bolsonaro remains legally and politically central to the right. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking another term from the left, backed by the advantages of incumbency but facing a polarized electorate.
The 2030 Calculation
Folha de S.Paulo columnist Dora Kramer wrote that politicians in the center, center-right and parts of the right are already discussing whether a Lula victory in 2026 could leave the PT weakened and open the field for a post-Lula election in 2030. In that reading, a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would restart a longer Bolsonaro family cycle at the Planalto Palace, Brazil’s executive seat.
Kramer reported that groups around Romeu Zema, the governor of Minas Gerais from the Novo party, and Ronaldo Caiado, the governor of Goiás from the PSD, are discussing alliances with each other for the first round but are not committing to join the PL. Their posture reflects a broader fragmentation among Lula’s opponents, even as many of them assume they could align against the PT in a runoff.
InfoMoney, citing Estadão Conteúdo, reported in December that members of Lula’s government and center-party politicians saw Jair Bolsonaro’s move to launch Flávio as a strategy to preserve the family’s political estate and keep right-wing voters focused on 2030. The same report said the decision disrupted expectations that Bolsonaro might back São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a stronger bridge to the political center.
Flávio’s Pitch
In a CNN Brasil interview published on YouTube on May 8, Flávio Bolsonaro presented his campaign as a fiscal and institutional alternative to Lula. He said he wanted to reduce the federal cabinet from 39 ministries to around 27, sell or better manage federal real estate and use artificial intelligence to monitor public spending.
He also said Jair Bolsonaro would remain his “north star” and adviser if he won. Asked whether the former president could take a formal post in a future government, Flávio did not name a ministry but said Bolsonaro would be able to serve if he wanted.
Flávio also defended a broad amnesty for Bolsonaro and others punished in cases linked to Brazil’s post-2022 political crisis. He criticized Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), especially Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and said the court should return to what he described as strict respect for the Constitution. Those claims are central to the Bolsonaro camp’s campaign message, but remain disputed by its opponents and by defenders of the court’s role in protecting democratic institutions.
Pressure Inside the PL
The pre-candidacy has shown stress points. BBC News Brasil reported that Flávio traveled to Washington on May 25 amid a campaign crisis after revelations of links to banker Daniel Vorcaro, of Banco Master. According to the BBC, aides said a possible meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump had been invited by the White House after contacts mediated by Eduardo Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s son who has lived in the United States since last year. The White House had not confirmed the meeting at the time of publication.
The BBC also reported that Datafolha and Atlas/Intel polls showed Flávio losing support in both first- and second-round scenarios after the Vorcaro case. Before it, he had appeared numerically ahead of Lula in some second-round simulations.
At state level, CNN Brasil reported that Flávio wants his mother, Rogéria Bolsonaro, to run for one of Rio de Janeiro’s Senate seats for the PL. The move comes as party figures pressure former Rio governor Cláudio Castro to step aside while he deals with legal exposure from police operations linked to Refit and the Master case. CNN said Paraná Pesquisas showed Rogéria with 28.1% in a scenario without Castro, behind PT senator Benedita da Silva.
For now, the right’s dilemma is not only whether Flávio Bolsonaro can defeat Lula in 2026. It is whether a candidacy built around the Bolsonaro name strengthens the movement’s future—or prevents a broader center-right coalition from replacing it.