Delinquency among Brazilian rural producers reached 8.8% in the first quarter of 2026, the highest level in the historical series published by credit bureau Serasa Experian, according to single-source reporting from CNN Brasil.
The rate rose 1.2 percentage points from the same period in 2025 and 0.6 percentage point from the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the rate stood at 7.6%. It then climbed through successive quarters to 7.9%, 8.0%, 8.2% and finally 8.8%.
Pressure on Cash Flow
Marcelo Pimenta, Serasa Experian’s head of agribusiness, said the gradual increase shows that rural producers are still struggling to rebuild financial capacity after previous cycles of strain.
"Even with a more favorable outlook for some agribusiness segments, the effects of previous cycles, with high costs, price fluctuations and credit restrictions, continue to affect cash flow and payment capacity in the sector," Pimenta said, according to CNN Brasil.
Brazil’s agribusiness sector is one of the country’s main economic engines, spanning large grain producers, cattle ranchers, cooperatives, input suppliers and agro-industrial companies. The new delinquency data suggest that financial stress remains uneven but persistent even as some farm markets improve.
Serasa Experian’s indicator covers debts owed by individuals identified as part of the rural population. The debts must be more than 180 days overdue, between R$1,000 and five years in arrears, and contracted with companies connected to agribusiness, including financial institutions, input suppliers, agro-industries and cooperatives.
Who Is Most Exposed
By producer profile, the highest delinquency rate appeared among people without rural registry information, a group that may include tenants or members of family and business groups. Their rate reached 11%.
Large rural landowners followed at 9.9%, medium-sized producers at 8.6% and small producers at 8.3%. The age breakdown showed the highest rates among producers in their most active working years: 13.6% for those aged 30 to 39, 12.4% for those aged 18 to 29, and 11.3% for those aged 40 to 49. Rates decline gradually after age 50.
Regional differences were also sharp. Brazil’s North recorded the highest delinquency rate, at 13.2%, followed by the Northeast at 10.2% and the Center-West, the country’s main grain-producing belt, at 10.1%. The South and Southeast posted the lowest rates, at 6.2% and 7.3%, respectively.
Among Brazil’s states, Amapá had the highest rate, at 21.2%. Rio Grande do Sul had the lowest, at 5.8%.
Credit Risk Rises
Serasa Experian said its Agro Score, a credit-risk tool for rural producers, also weakened. The average score fell from 606 points in the first quarter of 2025 to 591 points in the same period of 2026, indicating greater perceived risk in lending to the sector.
The company says the tool uses artificial intelligence and machine-learning techniques to combine financial, registration and rural-activity data. Its purpose is to improve risk assessment for producers seeking credit.
The delinquency indicator is calculated from a base of 10.7 million individuals identified as rural population. Serasa Experian defines that base using rural property records, agricultural credit operations and producer registries.