The Brazilian government forecasts it will raise 22.4 billion reais (about $4.1 billion) from an extraordinary auction of pre‑salt oil rights scheduled for 2027, according to the budget proposal submitted to Congress. The projected revenue is seen as crucial to meeting the administration’s target of a primary fiscal surplus of 18.6 billion reais next year – equivalent to 0.13 % of gross domestic product.
Officials from the economic team have said that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aims to leave a balanced budget for his successor, regardless of the October election outcome, without needing additional congressional measures. In practice, however, the pre‑salt auction will be decisive for hitting the fiscal goal, as the expected proceeds exceed the calculated surplus for the year.
An anonymous source within the economic team confirmed the anticipation of the funds, while a second source familiar with the matter said the 2027 operation would involve the sale of a future flow of the Union’s oil production.
This year the government had initially estimated a windfall of 31 billion reais from a similar extraordinary pre‑salt auction, backed by a 2025 law permitting the alienation of rights and obligations arising from Individualisation of Production Agreements (AIPs) in pre‑salt areas. That estimate was abandoned in May after the authorities decided not to hold the auction, citing unresolved questions raised by the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) about the Union’s rights‑selling model.
If the 2027 forecast materialises, it would mark the first primary surplus recorded since 2022. Economic officials note, however, that the 2022 surplus was distorted by the postponement of precatório payments under a constitutional amendment enacted during the Jair Bolsonaro administration, which limited judicial‑spending disbursements.
Thus, the upcoming pre‑salt auction represents not only a significant revenue stream but also a litmus test for the credibility of Brazil’s fiscal framework as it seeks to restore sustainable public finances after years of volatile commodity‑dependent budgets.