President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, according to a Real Time Big Data poll released on June 1. The survey gives Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), 45% of voting intentions against 40% for Flávio, a senator from the Liberal Party (PL) and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The same poll shows a more competitive field when Lula is tested against two center-right governors. Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), ties Lula at 43% in a possible second round. Romeu Zema, of the libertarian-leaning New Party (Novo), trails Lula by three points, 43% to 40%, a gap within the poll’s two-point margin of error.
The First-Round Picture
In the main stimulated first-round scenario, where voters are shown a list of candidates, Lula leads with 38%. Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 31%, keeping him as the strongest opposition name in the tested field.
Renan Santos, associated by Brasil Paralelo with the Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL), and Caiado each appear with 6%. Zema has 4%, while Aécio Neves, a former presidential candidate from the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), and Joaquim Barbosa, a former Supreme Federal Court justice, each register 3%.
A second stimulated scenario produces almost the same result: Lula remains at 38%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 31%, Renan Santos and Caiado at 6%, and Zema rises to 5%. In that scenario, Aldo Rebelo appears with 1%; Gazeta do Povo notes that Brazil’s Electoral Court authorized his expulsion from Democracia Cristã (DC) on May 25.
Runoff Scenarios
The poll tested five possible second-round races, all involving Lula. Against Renan Santos, Lula leads by 46% to 30%. Against Aécio Neves, the president leads 47% to 23%.
The tightest race is against Caiado, a conservative governor from Goiás, where both candidates stand at 43%. Against Zema, the governor of Minas Gerais, Lula is numerically ahead but technically tied within the margin of error.
Against Flávio Bolsonaro, the June numbers mark a reversal from Real Time Big Data’s May survey. UOL reports that in May, Flávio had 44% against Lula’s 43%. In the new poll, Lula rises to 45%, while Flávio falls to 40%.
Why the Shift Matters
Several outlets linked Flávio Bolsonaro’s decline to recent news involving Daniel Vorcaro and Banco Master. Brasil Paralelo and UOL refer to leaked audios involving Flávio and Vorcaro, while Sul21 cites reporting by The Intercept Brasil alleging negotiations for R$134 million to produce a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Those allegations are presented here as source-reported claims, not independently verified facts.
UOL also notes that the survey is the first Real Time Big Data poll after Flávio Bolsonaro met Donald Trump and after Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies approved a proposal to end the 6x1 work schedule, a labor regime under which employees work six days before one day off.
The poll surveyed 2,000 people and has a 95% confidence level. Gazeta do Povo, Sul21 and Brasil Paralelo report that interviews took place on May 29 and 30; UOL’s text lists March 29 and 30, a discrepancy not explained in the source material. The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under BR-05864/2026.