Raquel Lyra Overtakes João Campos in Pernambuco Governor’s Race

Pernambuco Governor Raquel Lyra has moved ahead of former Recife mayor João Campos in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a new Datafolha poll, reversing a lead that had made Campos the early favorite only weeks ago.

Datafolha, in a survey released May 28, put Lyra, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), at 48% in the first round against 43% for Campos, who leads the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). Because the poll’s margin of error is three percentage points, the two are technically tied in the first-round scenario.

In a simulated runoff, however, Lyra leads more clearly: 51% to 44%, with 4% saying they would vote blank or null and 1% undecided. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Campos had led the previous Datafolha runoff simulation by 52% to 42%.

A Fast Reversal

The reversal is notable because Campos had dominated earlier polling. A Quaest survey publicized by O POVO in late April showed him ahead of Lyra by 46% to 38% in a possible second round. Estadão reported that, in August last year, Quaest had shown Campos 31 points ahead of Lyra in a first-round scenario; by the most recent Quaest survey cited by the paper, that lead had fallen to eight points.

The latest Datafolha survey was commissioned by TV Tribuna/Band and heard 1,022 voters across Pernambuco from May 25 to 27. It has a 95% confidence level and was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the federal body that oversees elections, under number PE-07888/2026.

The same poll found that 67% of voters approve Lyra’s state government, while 28% disapprove. Her administration was rated good or excellent by 45%, regular by 37%, and bad or terrible by 16%.

Why Lyra Is Rising

Estadão attributed Lyra’s recovery to a combination of incumbency, improved public communication, better relations with the state legislature and visible policy deliveries, especially in public security. Pernambuco is one of Brazil’s most violent states, and specialists interviewed by the newspaper cited the hiring of almost 7,000 security agents, based on government data, as a central factor.

Maurício Garcia, a sociologist and former regional director of Ibope in Brazil’s northeast, told Estadão that the governor had made the security reinforcements visible to voters. New police officers have been identified by orange caps and became known locally as “laranjinhas,” a nickname later adopted by the administration’s communications.

Renato Dorgan, CEO of the Travessia Institute, told Estadão that qualitative research groups had picked up a perception of more police on Recife’s streets. He also linked Lyra’s improvement to infrastructure and sanitation investments in the state’s interior, where the PSD has expanded its network of allied mayors.

Lula’s Dilemma

The Pernambuco race also matters nationally. The PSB holds Brazil’s vice presidency with Geraldo Alckmin and wants to strengthen its position inside the broader left-of-center camp after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Campos, 32, is the party’s national president and is seen by allies as a possible presidential contender in 2030 if he wins Pernambuco.

That makes Lula’s position important. Campos’ camp wants an explicit endorsement from the president, while Lyra also maintains a good relationship with Lula. Estadão reported that Lula has signaled to allies that he intends to declare support for Campos, though Lyra’s allies believe he may avoid direct involvement.

Edinho Silva, president of the Workers’ Party (PT), said Lula has “never hidden” that Campos is his candidate in Pernambuco, while also saying the PT would not refuse dialogue with anyone willing to support the president.

The Senate race may also shape the governor’s contest. Datafolha showed Marília Arraes leading both Senate scenarios with 39% to 40%, followed by Humberto Costa of the PT with 31% to 32%. Campos has chosen both as Senate allies, a left-aligned slate that analysts quoted by Estadão said could distance him from centrist and center-right voters.

For now, the race has shifted from Campos’ apparent advantage to a contest shaped by Lyra’s incumbency, voter perceptions of government performance, and Lula’s calculation in a state that remains strategically important to Brazil’s left.