São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads the race for another term at the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, the seat of Brazil’s most populous state government, according to single-source reporting from Revista Oeste on a new Datafolha poll.
The survey, conducted from July 1 to July 3 and released on Sunday, July 5, puts Tarcísio, of the Republicanos party, at 46% of voting intentions. Fernando Haddad, from the Workers’ Party (PT), the center-left party led nationally by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, appears second with 30%.
First-Round Numbers
The poll lists three other names far behind the two leading candidates. Vera Lúcia, from the Unified Socialist Workers’ Party (PSTU), has 5%. Carlos Machado, from the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB), and Vivian Mendes, from Popular Unity (UP), each have 4%.
Another 8% of respondents said they would vote blank, null or for none of the listed candidates. Three percent said they did not know whom they would support.
According to the report, Datafolha interviewed 1,608 voters aged 16 or older in 71 municipalities across São Paulo state. The poll was conducted in person and has a margin of error of two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.
Runoff Scenario
Tarcísio also leads in a simulated second round against Haddad. In that scenario, the governor receives 53% of voting intentions, while Haddad receives 37%.
Blank, null and “none” responses total 7% in the runoff simulation. Another 3% of voters said they did not know how they would vote.
In the spontaneous survey, where interviewers do not present a list of candidates, Tarcísio was named by 21% of voters. Haddad was named by 8%. A large share of respondents, 55%, said they did not know whom they would support, showing that the race still has room to shift despite the governor’s early advantage in prompted scenarios.
Rejection and Endorsements
The poll also measured rejection rates. Haddad has the highest rejection among the listed candidates, with 47% of respondents saying they would not vote for him under any circumstances. Tarcísio’s rejection rate is 29%.
Carlos Machado and Vera Lúcia each register 22% rejection. Vivian Mendes has the lowest rejection among the listed names, at 15%.
Datafolha also asked voters how endorsements from major national figures would affect their choice. For former President Jair Bolsonaro, 27% said his support would definitely lead them to vote for a candidate, while 22% said it might influence them. Another 49% said they would not vote at all for a candidate backed by Bolsonaro.
For President Lula, 19% said they would certainly vote for a candidate supported by him, and 23% said they might do so. A majority, 54%, said they would not choose a candidate endorsed by Lula.
The figures underline how the São Paulo race remains tied to Brazil’s broader national polarization. Tarcísio is one of the country’s most visible right-of-center governors, while Haddad is one of the Workers’ Party’s best-known national figures. In Brazil’s largest state, both names carry political weight beyond the governor’s office itself.