The outcome of Brazil's presidential election may decide the future of the Amazon rainforest and directly affect global efforts to preserve the planet's largest tropical forest, according to an article published Sunday by The New York Times. The runoff is scheduled for next Sunday, October 25.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), the frontrunner, has pledged to facilitate economic exploitation of the Amazon region. The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022) proposes opening protected areas to mining, agribusiness, and oil exploration, along with building highways and railways through the forest. While he has promised to combat illegal deforestation, specialists warn that relaxing environmental regulations could expand legal clearing.
Competing visions for the forest
Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy is backed by agribusiness representatives and segments of Brazil's economic and political elite interested in expanding productive activities in the region. During the campaign, he defended his father's environmental record, a period marked by a sharp increase in forest loss.
"The best way to address the environmental issue is what we did during the Bolsonaro government," the candidate said.
The prospect of a return to that model has alarmed Indigenous communities. Supporters of the senator have reportedly warned Amazon Indigenous groups of potential land invasions if he wins.
Under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), deforestation in the Amazon fell to its lowest recorded level, according to data from Brazil's space agency. Lula strengthened environmental enforcement agencies, invested in forest restoration, and committed to ending deforestation by 2030. The contrast between the two platforms places Amazon preservation at the center of the election.
Scientists warn of irreversible tipping point
Studies indicate that continued deforestation could drastically reduce rainfall in the Amazon and trigger the gradual transformation of vast forest areas into savanna by 2050, a process known as savannization. Nico Wunderling, a climate researcher at Goethe University Frankfurt, says this shift is difficult to reverse once underway.
The pressure on the forest is driven largely by international demand for agricultural commodities. Brazil is the world's largest exporter of beef and soy, two leading drivers of Amazon deforestation. In recent years, extensive native vegetation has been converted to cattle pasture.
During Jair Bolsonaro's four-year term, total deforested area reached nearly 4.6 million hectares — roughly 5,777 times the area of New York's Central Park, or about four Central Parks per day in office.
Carlos Nobre, a leading Brazilian climate scientist, argues that preservation requires stopping all forms of deforestation, not just illegal clearing. "What we really need to pursue is zero deforestation," he said. Even legal clearing, Nobre warns, risks significant rainfall reduction across much of South America, threatening Brazilian agriculture and global food prices. Brazil is the world's second-largest food exporter and may surpass the United States this year.
Flávio Bolsonaro's proposals draw scrutiny
Despite pledging to end illegal deforestation by 2029 — a target matching Brazil's official goal — Flávio Bolsonaro has offered few details on implementation. As a senator, he co-authored a bill to eliminate the current rule allowing landowners in the Amazon to clear up to 20% of native vegetation on their properties; the bill did not advance.
If elected, he promises to simplify environmental licensing and reduce bureaucracy to expedite permits for miners and ranchers. Experts caution that combating illegal clearing alone is insufficient if legal deforestation expands.
Organized crime compounds the threat
Beyond agricultural expansion, the Amazon faces growing incursions by criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking, illegal mining, logging, and land grabbing. During the Bolsonaro administration, weakened enforcement created space for these activities to expand. Specialists fear a Flávio Bolsonaro victory could further embolden such groups.
The region's geography exacerbates the problem. Most of the world's cocaine originates in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia — all Amazon neighbors — and the river network serves as a key trafficking route to Atlantic markets.
"There is a much larger ecosystem of illegal miners, loggers, smugglers, transporters, and corrupt intermediaries," said Robert Muggah of the Igarapé Institute, a Brazilian security think tank. These illicit markets overlap and drive further deforestation.
Security approach questioned
An ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, Flávio Bolsonaro advocates expanded satellite monitoring and a militarized response against criminal organizations, which he proposes classifying as terrorist groups. However, his plans to cut public spending and streamline oversight agencies raise doubts about the capacity to sustain enforcement in the vast region.
Ariadne Natal, senior researcher at the Brazilian Public Security Forum, argues that lasting solutions require investment in sustainable job creation and international cooperation — not reliance on military force alone.
"Once again, we stand at a crossroads, with very different paths for what may happen," she said.