Brazilian agribusiness began 2026 with strong momentum, but farmers and input suppliers are already preparing for a less favorable cycle. A possible El Niño, potentially a severe one, could disrupt planting later this year and weigh on harvests in 2027.
The warning comes after agriculture helped drive Brazil’s economy in the first quarter. According to G1, citing IBGE, Brazil’s official statistics agency, farming and livestock grew 2% from the last quarter of 2025, supported by grain output, especially soybeans.
Climate Risk Returns
El Niño is a warming of waters in the tropical Pacific that changes rainfall patterns across the world. In Brazil, the phenomenon often brings heavier rain to the South and drier, hotter weather to parts of the Center-North, including major soybean, corn and cotton areas.
Estadão reported that large Brazilian grain producers are studying ways to reduce possible losses if a “super El Niño” forms. The term is generally used when warming in the Pacific exceeds 2°C above the historical average. The phenomenon has not yet been officially confirmed, according to G1’s reporting.
Carlos Cogo, from Cogo Inteligência em Agronegócios, told G1 that the last strong El Niño comparable to what is expected this year occurred in 2014 and 2015, a period associated with major crop losses. Felippe Serigati, a researcher at FGV Agro, said the main economic effect on production and GDP would likely appear in 2027, because much of this year’s grain crop has already been planted.
Soy, Corn and Rice
Soybeans and corn, Brazil’s two main crops, are central to the risk. Estadão reported that a severe El Niño could delay soybean planting and shorten the window for Brazil’s second corn crop, known as the safrinha, which is planted after the summer harvest and has become a major part of national corn output.
Regional effects would differ sharply. G1 reported that Matopiba — the agricultural frontier formed by Tocantins and parts of Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia — could face intense dryness, as could Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, and Pará. In the South, excessive rain could hurt rice cultivation in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s main rice-producing state.
Agrolink, citing an interview with Martín Pacheco of Sancor Seguros, reported that excessive rain in Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul could also raise risks of floods, hail and storms. Frequent rain during harvest may increase wheat disease and reduce soybean grain quality.
Costs Add Pressure
Weather is not the only concern. G1 reported that fertilizer prices have risen because of the war in the Middle East, increasing production costs for farmers buying inputs for future planting cycles. Serigati said farmers who cannot afford the ideal fertilizer volume may apply less than recommended or switch to less concentrated products, reducing potential productivity and raising freight and diesel costs.
High interest rates, lower commodity prices and a stronger Brazilian real also create a tougher environment for producers. Serigati forecasts that agribusiness GDP could fall 0.9% this year, according to G1.
Some companies expect farmers to adjust crop choices. João Marcelo Dumoncel, CEO of 3tentos, told The AgriBiz that sorghum planting could accelerate in the next safrinha because the crop is more resistant than corn, needs less rain and uses the same machinery. He said the sorghum area had already been growing 15% to 20% a year and could rise faster if a stronger El Niño is confirmed.
Managing the Exposure
Farmers are weighing several responses: changing planting dates, improving soil moisture management, using more stable soybean varieties, adjusting fertilizer use and, in some cases, replacing part of the corn area with sorghum.
Insurance is also gaining attention. Agrolink reported, based on Sancor Seguros data, that agricultural insurance still covers less than 10% of Brazil’s planted area, despite federal and state subsidies in some cases. Pacheco argued that farmers should treat insurance as a tool for productive stability, not merely as a cost.
For now, the central point is caution. The 2026 harvest benefited from favorable conditions already in place. The bigger test may come when producers plant the next crop under a more expensive and less predictable climate scenario.