Brazilian food prices could face renewed pressure if El Niño disrupts planting windows, harvests and pasture conditions across the country, according to single-source reporting by G1. The climate phenomenon, marked by warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean, can alter rainfall patterns worldwide, bringing drought to some producing regions and heavier rain to others.
Leandro Gilio, a researcher at Insper Agro Global, told G1 that an impact on food prices would be difficult to avoid if the phenomenon interferes with planting periods or damages production during harvest. The first effects are expected to appear in vegetables, which are more sensitive to abrupt weather changes. If El Niño proves more intense, annual crops could become more expensive next year.
Crops at Risk
Cesar Castro Alves, manager of Itaú BBA's agribusiness consultancy, said the main products exposed to disruption include corn, coffee, fruit, oranges, sugar cane, wheat and rice. Milk may also be affected, depending on rainfall levels in southern Brazil.
Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) expects cattle ranching to be the most affected activity in the Center-West and North, where water shortages could reduce pasture availability. Some regions may benefit, however. In the Northeast, low rainfall and heat can favor the bean harvest, while above-average rain in the South may help winter crops.
Coffee is one of the most sensitive markets. Irregular rain can trigger early and uneven flowering, leaving flowers vulnerable to abortion or producing smaller beans. Arabica coffee, Brazil's most popular variety and more sensitive to this kind of stress, may also lose quality. Celírio Inácio da Silva, executive director of the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), said the sector began the year expecting a record crop of more than 66 million bags, but rain has already delayed the conilon coffee harvest in producing regions.
Silva told G1 that weaker supply, combined with low inventories, could fuel speculation in international markets and raise raw material prices. The industry would then pass higher costs on to consumers. For arabica, the main concern is the 2027 crop. Silva said a more intense El Niño could lead to a 25% production loss, although the timing and scale remain uncertain.
Corn and Meat
Corn faces a different problem. Itaú BBA estimates that average global corn productivity falls about 4% in El Niño years, especially in tropical regions. In Brazil, the main risk usually falls on the second corn crop, because irregular rains can delay soybean planting in the Center-West. That pushes back the soybean harvest and narrows the ideal window for planting corn.
Glauber Silveira, executive director of Brazil's Corn and Sorghum Producers Association (Abramilho), said some farmers may reduce planted area or switch from corn to sorghum to limit risk. Francisco Queiroz, an Itaú BBA agribusiness specialist, said higher costs and tighter profit margins could also slow planted-area growth. A drop in production in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest grain-producing state, could affect international corn prices, according to G1.
If corn prices rise in 2027, meat could also become more expensive because corn is used in feed for confined livestock. Danyella Bonfim, a technical adviser at Brazil's National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), said water deficits and drought can reduce pastures, hurting milk output and making it harder for slaughter animals to gain weight. Excessive heat can also stress animals and reduce feed intake.
Fruit, Vegetables and Cane
In southern Brazil, heavier rain can cause rot, quality losses and planting delays. Itaú BBA identified onions, potatoes, tomatoes and carrots as especially exposed. Apples may be hit during flowering and fruit formation, while grapes in Rio Grande do Sul could suffer from excess humidity. In some areas, lower reservoir levels may complicate irrigation for sensitive fruit such as mangoes, papayas and grapes.
There are exceptions. Dry weather and high temperatures may favor irrigated melon and watermelon crops in the Northeast. Oranges, however, face above-average temperatures in São Paulo's citrus belt, where heat can damage flowering between September and November and cause young fruit to fall. Itaú BBA analyst Wharlhey Nunes said an already smaller orange crop could shrink further, pushing up juice prices and reducing fruit quality.
Sugar cane may also be affected. Itaú BBA said out-of-season rain in the Center-South, which accounts for about 90% of Brazil's cane crushing, can reduce raw material quality and delay sucrose accumulation. In the North and Northeast, drought and heat may create water and thermal stress, hurting plant development.