Photo: The Central Bank in Brasilia. File photograph. Marcello Casal Jr/Agência Brasil — CC BY 3.0 br.
Financial-market analysts raised their median forecast for Brazil’s 2026 inflation to 5.22%, from 5.01% the previous week, in the Central Bank’s Focus survey released on Oct. 13. The survey also showed the median projection for the year-end Selic rate falling to 13.25%, from 13.50%. The median forecast for economic growth remained at 1.85%, while the exchange-rate estimate was R$5.15 per U.S. dollar.
The Focus report compiles estimates submitted by market participants; it is not a forecast issued by the Central Bank or a policy decision. The report was dated Oct. 9 and published on Oct. 13. Its reference period matters because the survey aggregates expectations rather than measuring the inflation already recorded in September. The IBGE had reported a 0.82% monthly IPCA increase for September, a data point cited in contemporaneous coverage of the change in expectations.
The shift came as analysts revised their estimates for consumer prices and interest rates in opposite directions. A higher inflation projection alongside a lower expected Selic does not establish what the Central Bank will do: the Selic is set by the Monetary Policy Committee, which considers incoming data and its inflation target. The Focus medians describe the distribution of surveyed expectations at that time.
The revised estimate placed expected full-year inflation above the government’s target center. It remains a market projection and may change as new information arrives. The survey is therefore useful as a dated measure of expectations, while actual inflation and future interest-rate decisions remain separate outcomes.