Food consumed at home in Brazil is expected to end 2026 at least 7% more expensive, according to single-source reporting from Revista Oeste. The forecast reflects upward revisions by economists after the conflict in Iran and risks tied to El Niño added pressure to production and transport costs.
If confirmed, the increase would mark the largest annual rise in the category since 2024, when prices rose 8.23%. It would also exceed Brazil's broader official inflation forecast, measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which the Central Bank's Focus survey puts at 5.09%.
Why Food Costs Are Rising
Revista Oeste reported that analysts interviewed by O Globo warned that food inflation could affect Brazil's electoral debate this year. Food prices at home had recently eased, rising only 1.43% in 2025 after a volatile period that began during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The new pressure comes from two fronts. The war in the Middle East has unsettled energy markets and pushed up international oil prices. In Brazil, that feeds into diesel costs, a critical input for a country that moves much of its freight by road.
The report also said a temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz reduced fertilizer supply and raised costs for future harvests. Fertilizers are central to Brazilian agriculture, especially grain production, and higher input costs can move through the food chain before crops reach consumers.
Forecasts Move Higher
Economist André Romão more than doubled his forecast for food-at-home inflation this year, according to Revista Oeste. Before the fighting began in February, he expected the category to rise 3.7% in 2026. His new projection is 7.7% by December.
Brazil's statistics agency, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), shows that the worst recent year for food-at-home inflation was 2020, at the height of the pandemic, when prices rose 18.15%. From 2020 through 2025, food products increased at an average annual rate of 8.13%, according to the report.
There was only one year of price decline in that period. In 2023, the first year of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's current administration, food-at-home inflation fell 0.52%, helped by a record grain harvest.
Weather Adds Risk
El Niño, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that changes rainfall patterns, adds a second layer of uncertainty for the second half of the year. In Brazil, the phenomenon has historically brought drought risk to the North and Northeast while increasing the chance of storms and floods in the South.
Those regional effects matter because they can hit different crops in different ways. Revista Oeste highlighted potential damage to fruit and vegetable harvests, which are especially sensitive to heavy rain, flooding and transport disruption.
For consumers, the concern is not only the size of the forecast increase, but its timing. Food prices are visible, politically sensitive and felt immediately in household budgets, making them one of the inflation measures most likely to shape public sentiment before an election.