Photo: CNN Brasil.
Brazil’s IPCA-15 preliminary consumer-price index rose 0.70% in September, reversing August’s 0.40% decline, IBGE reported on September 25. The reading was the highest since April and exceeded the median forecasts in a Reuters poll, which had expected a 0.53% monthly increase. Over 12 months, the index accelerated to 4.47% from 4.24% in August. IPCA-15 is an advance measure of consumer inflation, using a reference period that ends before the full-month IPCA release.
Housing was the largest contributor, rising 2.07% and adding 0.31 percentage point to the monthly rate. Agência Brasil said the electricity component reflected the end of the Itaipu bonus that had reduced household bills in August. Food and beverages rose 0.40%, while transportation increased 0.60%. The increase was broad enough to lift the headline figure, though the electricity effect accounted for a substantial part of the change.
The 12-month IPCA-15 measure remained within Brazil’s formal inflation tolerance band around its 3% target, but it moved closer to the upper edge. Reuters reported the September figure was also above market expectations for the annual rate. The index is not the same as the full IPCA used for the official target assessment, so the two measures should not be conflated.
The data arrived nine days before the first round of the presidential election and amid debate over household costs. A single monthly reading does not establish a trend, and the electricity comparison was affected by a temporary bill discount in the preceding month. The release provides a snapshot of price movements through mid-September, with housing and food among the categories adding to the index.