The Quaest poll, conducted between August 21 and 24 among 1,104 voters aged 16 or older, shows Governor Celina Leão (Progressive Party, PP) leading the race to remain in charge of the Federal District’s government with 34% of voting intentions. José Roberto Arruda (Social Democratic Party, PSD), who governed the capital from 2007 to 2010, follows with 20%.
Other candidates trail far behind: Leandro Grass (Workers’ Party, PT) at 13%, Paulo Belmonte (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB) and Ricardo Cappelli (Brazilian Socialist Party, PSB) each at 3%. Smaller parties register minimal support, with Kiko Caputo (New Party) at 2% and Professor Samara Mineiro (Popular Unity, UP) at 1%. Several candidates, including Elisson (Act), Professor Robson (United Socialist Workers’ Party, PSTU), Expedito Mendonça and Rico Pinheiro (both Workers’ Cause Party, PCO), received no measurable support.
In the spontaneous poll—where respondents are not prompted with a candidate list—Leão holds 15% and Arruda 8%, with 63% undecided. The survey also tested three potential runoff scenarios. In a Leão–Arruda matchup, Leão would obtain 42% to Arruda’s 32%, with 17% favoring blank, null or no votes and 9% undecided. Against Leandro Grass, Leão leads 52% to 24%, while 16% would cast blank/null/no votes and 8% are undecided. In an Arruda versus Grass scenario, Arruda would win 44% to 26%, with 19% opting for blank/null/no votes and 11% undecided.
The poll also examined the Senate race, where two seats are contested. Michelle Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) leads with 25% of voting intentions, followed by Olympic volleyball medalist Leila do Vôlei (Democratic Labour Party, PDT) at 17%. Erika Kokay (Workers’ Party, PT) registers 12%, and Bia Kicis (Liberal Party, PL) 9%. Minor candidates each sit at 2% or 1%, with 18% undecided and 12% intending to cast blank, null or no votes.
The Federal District’s political contest unfolds amid negotiations for a R$6.6 billion loan from the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) to recapitalize the Bank of Brasília (BRB), which suffered losses tied to the now‑defunct Banco Master. Banco Master’s operations were linked to Daniel Vorcaro, and its collapse triggered the Operation Caixa de Pandora investigation in 2009, in which Arruda was filmed receiving cash—a fact cited in his ongoing legal challenges.
Celina Leão stated during a televised debate on August 9 that she opposed BRB’s acquisition of Banco Master, a deal pursued by her predecessor, former governor Ibaneis Rocha (Brazilian Democratic Movement, MDB), for whom she served as vice‑governor. Arruda’s candidacy remains pending a ruling from the Federal District’s Electoral Justice; the regional prosecutors have argued he is ineligible until December 2030 due to convictions stemming from the 2005 mensalão scheme involving the Democrats (DEM) party.
All figures come from the single‑source reporting of Folha de S.Paulo, which commissioned the Quaest survey.