São Paulo’s right-wing Senate slate for Brazil’s 2026 election is taking shape after the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s highest court, convicted former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro and imposed an eight-year ineligibility penalty.
André do Prado, president of the São Paulo state legislature and a member of the Liberal Party (PL), launched his pre-candidacy on June 20 at an event in Guarulhos that Gazeta do Povo reported drew about 10,000 people. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and federal deputy Guilherme Derrite appeared on stage, signaling a broader agreement around the ticket.
The New Arrangement
The emerging plan puts Prado and Derrite in contention for São Paulo’s two Senate seats in the October 4 election. Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, had been expected to run for one of the seats but is now positioned as Prado’s first alternate, according to Gazeta do Povo.
The choice reflects electoral arithmetic as much as ideology. Prado has ties to mayors across São Paulo state, especially outside the capital, and allies see him as a candidate who can help mobilize municipal networks. Gazeta do Povo reported, based on people close to the ticket, that his name had support from PL president Valdemar Costa Neto and was also requested by Governor Tarcísio.
The move has not been frictionless. Gazeta do Povo reported that Jair Bolsonaro had preferred Ricardo de Mello Araújo, São Paulo’s vice mayor, while federal deputy Ricardo Salles and former Bolsonaro communications aide Fábio Wajngarten also expressed reservations about Prado. Salles says he will not give up his own Senate bid.
Legal Cloud
The STF’s First Panel convicted Eduardo Bolsonaro on June 16 of coercion in the course of judicial proceedings. Agência Brasil reported that the panel voted 4-0, sentencing him to four years and two months in semi-open prison, eight years of ineligibility and loss of his Federal Police clerk position. The decision can be appealed.
Agência Brasil said the court accepted the Prosecutor General’s Office argument that Eduardo helped push U.S. measures against Brazil, including tariffs, visa revocations and Magnitsky Act sanctions, to pressure authorities over the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro. His defense, handled by Brazil’s Federal Public Defender’s Office, argued that he had no decision-making power over U.S. foreign policy and had engaged in political dialogue.
Al Jazeera, in an earlier account of the same judgment, reported that three of four justices had voted for conviction with one vote still pending. Agência Brasil’s later report gave the final result as unanimous.
The legal issue may affect more than Eduardo’s own ambitions. Electoral lawyer Alexandre Rollo told Gazeta do Povo that, in theory, Eduardo cannot run for any office, including as a Senate alternate, because of the conviction. He said Eduardo could still file a candidacy request and run sub judice, meaning while the matter remains under judicial review, but warned that a Senate ticket requires valid registrations for the main candidate and both alternates.
Campaign Stakes
Prado’s current polling is a weakness for the alliance. Gazeta do Povo cited two June surveys, by Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas, in which Prado appeared in fifth place behind names including Derrite and Salles. The same report noted that allies view polling at this stage as a snapshot, not a forecast.
The Guarulhos event also served to show Tarcísio and Flávio Bolsonaro back on the same stage after recent political distance. Flávio, a PL senator from Rio de Janeiro and presidential pre-candidate, used the event to criticize President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government and promote his security agenda. Tarcísio credited Prado’s work in the state legislature for helping his administration pass measures in São Paulo.
For Brazil’s political right, the São Paulo Senate race now depends on whether the alliance can hold together around a pragmatic ticket while managing the legal uncertainty left by Eduardo Bolsonaro’s conviction.