Flávio Bolsonaro arrived in Maceió, Alagoas, on Tuesday August 25, 2026, marking his first campaign swing into Brazil’s Northeast, a region that delivered President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a 12.5‑million‑vote margin in the 2022 election. He was greeted only by right‑wing politicians and militants; allies from other parties avoided the stage, and Flávio leaned on religious leaders for support.
Electoral math behind the Northeast push
In 2022, Lula won the presidency by just 2.1 million votes nationwide, a margin driven by the Northeast’s overwhelming backing. The Bolsonaro campaign’s strategy is to chip away at that advantage by encouraging governors elected in the first round—who ran against PT‑backed candidates—to stay neutral early and then actively oppose the Workers’ Party after local contests are settled.
Tactical alliances and their limits
The Liberal Party (PL) has pledged backing to several centrist and centre‑right candidates in state races without demanding public reciprocity in the opening phase. In Bahia, the PL joined the ticket of ACM Neto (União Brasil), who opposes PT governor Jerônimo Rodrigues, while declaring a presidential vote for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) to avoid antagonising Lula. In Ceará, the PL kept its support for Ciro Gomes (PSDB) despite internal Bolsonaro clan tensions, hoping to defeat PT governor Elmano de Freitas and boost right‑wing Senate prospects. In Paraíba, the PL launched a more moderate candidate, Senator Efraim Filho, who left a “bolsonarista raiz” slate and now seeks the governorship.
Alagoas reveals the strategy’s fragility
In Alagoas—the home state of Flávio’s running mate—expectations of support from popular former Maceió mayor João Henrique Caldas (PSDB), known as JHC, went unmet. Caldas skipped campaign events, ignored Flávio on social media and did not declare a presidential vote. Local PL deputy Alfredo Gaspar said he would still vote for Caldas because the alternative, the Calheiros family‑led Lula coalition, is seen as a disaster, though he admitted lacking enthusiasm.
Other notable absences included former Chamber of Deputies president Arthur Lira (PP‑AL), who met Flávio only at an Assembly of God church ceremony, and Marina Cândia (PSDB), wife of JHC and a Senate candidate backed by Flávio, who has not engaged in the Bolsonaro campaign. Allies say the electorate already views JHC, Marina and Lira as the region’s right‑wing representatives, making an explicit endorsement unnecessary and potentially costly.
Lula’s entrenched Northeastern machine
Lula’s Alagoas effort is led by the Calheiros clan, Governor Paulo Dantas (MDB) and the MDB, the state’s largest party. Former Transport Minister Renan Filho (MDB) is running for governor, while patriarch Renan Calheiros (MDB) seeks a fourth consecutive Senate term. The Calheiros openly declare their Lula support and feature him in campaign material, whereas the committees of Lira and JHC avoid the presidential race entirely.
Campaign messaging and outreach
Upon landing, Flávio downplayed the snubs, saying “the most important is to have this top Alagoas leader, Alfredo Gaspar, and these people here.” He later met with Maceió business leaders, noting attendees included individuals jailed in the January 8, 2023 coup attempt. He highlighted his father’s policies popular in the Northeast: raising Bolsa Família, Brazil’s flagship cash‑transfer program for low‑income families, to R$600 and advancing the São Francisco River transposition project, which aims to redistribute water to the semi‑arid interior. He also pledged job‑creation initiatives, especially in tourism.
"These people are disappointed with Lula. They look at him and see the past; I hope they look at me and see the future," Flávio told the crowd.
All information is drawn from the Folha de S.Paulo report of August 26, 2026.