President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has gained an early electoral opening from a new US tariff surcharge on Brazil, according to single-source reporting from Folha de S.Paulo on the internal assessment of allies of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, an opposition presidential hopeful from the right-wing Liberal Party (PL).
Folha reports that members of Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-campaign recognize that Lula, the leader of the center-left Workers' Party (PT), has initially succeeded in trying to link the tariff dispute to his rival. They argue, however, that the effect will be smaller and easier to reverse than the political impact of a previous tariff increase imposed by Donald Trump's administration in 2025.
The Opposition's Argument
Flávio Bolsonaro's allies say the senator had already tried to protect himself politically by traveling to the White House in early July to ask the Trump administration to cancel the surcharge. They also point to the absence of Lula government representatives from a meeting at the Office of the United States Trade Representative as evidence, in their view, that the administration did not act forcefully enough.
The group is also trying to avoid a repeat of a damaging episode from June, when Trump posted a photo with Flávio Bolsonaro after presenting the new tariff proposal. According to Folha, that image had negative repercussions for the PL candidate because it made him appear too closely associated with the US measure.
A Genial/Quaest poll released on Thursday, July 16, suggested Lula's version currently has more public traction. The survey found that 51% of voters agreed more with Lula's claim that Flávio Bolsonaro helped provoke the US tariffs, while 30% agreed more with the senator. The poll was conducted from July 10 to July 13 and had a margin of error of two percentage points.
Rubio's Statement
The dispute intensified after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that the surcharge happened because Lula had put "his own ego" ahead of efforts to reach an agreement. Flávio Bolsonaro reposted Rubio's statement and added: "Lula no longer has the conditions to be president of Brazil. We are in a plane without a pilot."
Folha reports that Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign intends, at least in the first phase, to emphasize Lula's responsibility for the tariff dispute. Allies plan to circulate videos of the president criticizing Trump, including during the negotiation period, to support their argument that Lula prioritized a possible domestic political gain over Brazilian trade interests.
Since confirmation of the tariff on Wednesday, July 15, Brazil's right has contrasted Flávio Bolsonaro's trip to Washington with what it describes as deliberate inaction by Lula's government. The senator said on social media that Lula had "dug a penalty" and pushed the United States toward the measure.
Electoral Risks
The strategy comes with limits. After the 2025 tariff increase, Lula used the defense of national sovereignty as a campaign platform and improved his approval ratings, Folha notes. That earlier rebound was itself cited by Flávio Bolsonaro when he asked Trump not to impose new tariffs on Brazil.
Some figures in the pre-campaign believe the senator should not dwell on the issue for long. They argue that he should instead focus on policy proposals tied to voters' living standards. Flávio Bolsonaro had already scheduled the launch of a government plan aimed at women for Thursday, the day after the tariff was confirmed, with proposals involving entrepreneurship, daycare vouchers and public security.
The female electorate is considered crucial for his campaign and a source of concern, especially after a public clash with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro. Still, Folha reports that the campaign may return to the tariff issue if Lula succeeds in fixing his version of events in the public debate, or if the government makes mistakes in negotiations with Washington.
The campaign also sees other Brazil-US issues as potentially more useful to Flávio Bolsonaro, including the Trump administration's decision to classify Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital, two of Brazil's largest criminal factions, as terrorist organizations. Folha says the measure was adopted over the Lula government's objections.