Campaign officials for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva describe the current electoral landscape as a "new moment" after recent surveys show his approval narrowing against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The PT campaign acknowledges that ongoing tensions at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and leaks concerning investigations into the president’s son, Fábio Luiz Lula da Silva, and his former chief of staff Marco Aurélio Santana have shaped the debate.
Allies of the president see the election as still undecided and are focusing on calibrating a response, emphasizing Lula’s image as an experienced institutional figure capable of guiding the country through the current crisis. Nevertheless, the Lula campaign notes that the electoral contest will effectively begin only when television and radio advertising starts, when references to the vote increase on social media. In this "new phase" Lula still appears marginally ahead in major polls for both the first and second rounds.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s team, meanwhile, treats the polling data optimistically and aims to overtake Lula in voter intentions after the September 7 independence holiday. The PL is preparing an event on Avenida Paulista, expecting it to be amplified by potential revelations about Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes. Flávio’s allies have intensified their rhetoric against the magistrate, betting that the STF crisis will help keep the right‑wing electorate mobilized and provide a fresh axis of confrontation with the Lula administration, alleging "dobradinhas" (co‑optation) between the Court and the Planalto in recent years.
For Flávio’s camp, the surveys indicate the consolidation of his competitiveness after earlier setbacks to his campaign, and the Avenida Paulista rally is also viewed as a test of mobilization capacity, with the goal of turning street momentum into polling gains.