The AtlasIntel/Focus poll released on Friday surveyed 1,834 voters in Ceará from August 28 to September 2, giving incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) 51.6% of voting intentions for the first round of the 2026 presidential election. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) placed second with 25.7%.
Writer Augusto Cury of the Avante party followed with 12.3%, while Renan Santos of the Missão party captured 3.2%. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo) trailed with 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Hertz Dias of the PSTU registered 0.1%, and several other candidates received no measurable support. Blank or null votes totaled 1.0%, and undecided voters accounted for 3.7%.
Runoff Scenarios
The institute also tested four hypothetical second‑turn matchups. In the main stimulated scenario, Lula leads Bolsonaro 54.6% to 30.1%, with blank, null, or undecided responses making up 15.3%. Against former governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the president holds 54.3% versus 29.7%, leaving 16% for blank/null/undecided. When matched against former governor Romeu Zema (Novo), Lula’s share rises to 54.8% against Zema’s 27.5%, with 17.6% undecided or rejecting both candidates. Finally, versus Renan Santos (Missão), Lula reaches 54.5% to Santos’s 24.8%, and blank/null/undecided votes climb to 20.7%.
Methodological Notes
The poll’s margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. It was funded by AtlasIntel and registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-07411/2026. CNN Brasil notes that it used AI tools to extract data from the institute’s report, with journalist verification and editorial review before publication.
Context for International Readers
In Brazilian politics, the PT is the country’s historic center‑left party, traditionally associated with social‑welfare programs and led by Lula since the early 2000s. The PL is a right‑leaning party that has grown in influence under the Bolsonaro family. Avante, Missão, PSD, and Novo are smaller parties spanning the center to center‑right spectrum, often positioning themselves as alternatives to the dominant PT‑PL duopoly. Polls in individual states like Ceará can signal broader national trends, especially when conducted by reputable institutes such as AtlasIntel.
The results suggest that, despite a fragmented field, Lula maintains a solid base in the Northeast, a region that has been pivotal to his electoral successes in previous elections. The sizable gap to the nearest competitor in the first round indicates a possible advantage heading into a potential runoff, though the notable share of undecided voters leaves room for shifts as the campaign progresses.