The United States is considering a 25% tariff on a group of Brazilian products that could affect about $11.7 billion in exports, according to single-source reporting from CNN Brasil. The measure is being discussed under a Section 301 investigation, a US trade-law mechanism used to examine foreign trade practices.
The review is being conducted by the Office of the US Trade Representative, which is expected to hold a public hearing on Brazilian trade policies and practices. CNN Brasil economics analyst Lucinda Pinto said the products most exposed to the possible tariff are largely industrialized goods, not Brazil's best-known agricultural exports.
What Is at Risk
The goods identified by CNN Brasil include profiled coniferous wood, beef tallow, wooden doors and frames, natural honey, electrical transformers, shotguns and hunting rifles. Pinto described the list as long and said the volume of trade involved was significant.
The $11.7 billion potentially subject to the tariff sits within a broader Brazilian export flow of $37.7 billion to the United States. Coffee and beef, two of Brazil's most important export products, are not included in the group cited by the report.
That distinction matters for the economic reading of the case. The tariff would not strike Brazil's entire trade relationship with the US, but it could pressure specific industrial chains that rely heavily on American buyers.
Regional Exposure
A survey by the consulting firm Íntegra Associados, cited by CNN Brasil, found that São Paulo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul are the states with the largest production and export volumes for the listed goods sent to the United States.
The states expected to feel the direct effect most sharply, however, are Santa Catarina, Alagoas and Paraíba. The difference reflects dependence: a smaller export base can face a greater shock if a larger share of its sales goes to the US market.
Santa Catarina's furniture industry was cited as especially exposed. CNN Brasil reported that the state's highland region is a major exporter in the sector and has about 120,000 jobs tied to that production chain.
"Santa Catarina will feel the effect of this tariff quite strongly, if it is in fact approved," Pinto said, according to CNN Brasil.
Limited Macro Impact
Íntegra Associados assessed that the effect on Brazil's gross domestic product would likely be barely visible. CNN Brasil noted that only 10.8% of all Brazilian exports go to the United States.
The sectoral impact could still be significant. Pinto said companies that depend more heavily on the American market could lose competitiveness, revenue and profit, with possible effects on employment.
That makes the tariff risk more regional and industry-specific than macroeconomic. For Brazil as a whole, the numbers suggest a limited aggregate shock. For companies in affected export chains, the issue is more direct: a 25% tariff could make their products less attractive to US buyers and weaken margins in sectors already tied to a narrow set of markets.